Modeled conversions

How it works

When a visitor declines cookies, Google tags collect less, and some orders from ads can no longer be tied to a click. Google Ads and GA4 estimate the missing conversions from the signals they still get.

With Consent Mode in advanced mode, tags keep sending cookieless pings while consent is denied, including one for each key event. Google uses these pings to model your metrics and can apply an advertiser-specific model. In basic mode nothing is sent until the visitor agrees, and the estimate comes from a general model. Either way, modeling starts only once there is enough data.

The Google Ads API has no separate field for modeled conversions, so the estimate sits inside the numbers you read. Google Ads and GA4 model separately, which is one reason their conversions differ. What each mode lets Google estimate is the subject of Consent Mode v2 for online stores.

Example

Example store, not client data.

Say 40 of the tableware shop’s 300 orders from ads come from visitors who declined cookies, so the tag ties 260 orders to clicks. If modeling adds back 36 of the missing 40, Google Ads reports 260 + 36 = 296 conversions. GA4, with its own model, can show a different total for the same orders. The shop’s own records show 300.

Not to be confused with

• Enhanced conversions — you send hashed first-party data, such as an email address, with each conversion so Google can match more real orders. They add data to observed conversions; modeling estimates missing ones.
• Conversion lag — real orders that arrive days after the click and are added to that click’s day. Modeled conversions are estimates.

Right and wrong readings

• Wrong: “With Consent Mode on, every conversion lost to declined cookies comes back.” Right: modeling needs enough data to start, and in basic mode it rests on a general model; the result is an estimate, not a count of orders.
• Wrong: “Google Ads shows more purchases than GA4, so one of them counts twice.” Right: not necessarily; each estimates unobserved conversions with its own model, on top of different attribution settings.

Sources

• Consent mode overview — Tag Platform: basic and advanced mode, general and advertiser-specific models, cookieless pings, the data threshold. Checked 2 October 2026.
• Metrics — Google Ads API: no separate metric for modeled conversions. Checked 2 October 2026.
• Manage offline conversions — Google Ads API: enhanced conversions supplement conversions with first-party data. Checked 2 October 2026.